February 20, 2026

Ethiopia–Eritrea Escalation Risk

OVERVIEW Concentric assesses Ethiopia is facing an elevated prospect of confrontation with Eritrea driven by an escalating risk environment shaped by rhetoric over Red Sea access, renewed clashes in Tigray,

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Cuba Stability Outlook Assessment

KEY INSIGHTS Cuba is likely to remain under authoritarian control through 2026, despite severe economic and social strains. Energy shortages, economic contraction, and sustained emigration have weakened resilience and eroded

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