The Red Sea’s emergence as a key route for energy exports following the Strait of Hormuz restrictions  is converting landlocked Ethiopia’s dependence on external ports into a likely driver of renewed conflict with Eritrea. Combined with Ethiopia’s exclusion from an emerging Red Sea security order, this shift will likely increase cross-border conflict, trade disruption, and personnel security risks for organizations operating in Ethiopia and Eritrea.

OVERVIEW

The situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea is escalating, following Ethiopia’s decision on October 1 to close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats, prompting Eritrea to sever diplomatic ties. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reported Ethiopian drone strikes on Eritrean troops near Adigrat after Eritrean forces crossed the border, and both governments have lodged complaints to the U.N. Security Council. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of invading its territory, stating Eritrean forces penetrated as far as 60 kilometers into Tigray, while Eritrea accused Ethiopia of planning to seize the port of Assab, alleging senior Ethiopian commanders named it as their objective. 

The Red Sea’s emergence as an energy shipping route since the Hormuz crisis has likely accelerated this confrontation. The shift has raised the value of coastline access, increased Ethiopia’s exposure to a single port now in a conflict zone, and excluded Ethiopia from an emerging Red Sea security order. 

ANALYSIS

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have rarely been stable since Eritrea’s independence in 1993. A 1998 to 2000 border war killed more than 70,000 civilians and soldiers, and a 2018 peace deal led to Eritrean forces fighting alongside Ethiopian troops in the 2020 to 2022 Tigray war. The alignment collapsed after Eritrea was excluded from talks that produced the 2022 Pretoria  agreement. Since then, several factors have raised the risk of renewed conflict:

• Ethiopia accused Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of backing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front alliance; all three countries denied the allegations. 
• Ethiopia’s dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has drawn Cairo closer to Eritrea.
• Ethiopia faces a multi-front insurgency at home, and sea-access nationalism likely serves to rally domestic support for the government.

The biggest change in Ethiopia’s strategic environment over the past year has been the transformation of the Red Sea into the world’s principal energy bypass for Hormuz. Shipping data shows the scale of the shift:

• Saudi Arabian Red Sea exports nearly tripled, averaging 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) between March and June, against 1.6 million bpd a year earlier.
• Saudi Arabia’s Bab-el-Mandeb strait oil transits reached 3.5 million bpd in June, compared with 240,000 bpd a year earlier.

The threat has grown alongside the value of exports. The Houthis have carried out 12 attacks or attempted attacks on commercial vessels in the southern Red Sea since July, and pirates have conducted at least 23 attacks in the region since April.

For landlocked Ethiopia, these trends raise both the value of coastline access and the cost of lacking it. The country depends on Djibouti for maritime trade, leaving this primary maritime lifeline vulnerable to further escalation in the adjacent conflict zone.

The Red Sea’s rising value has drawn outside powers toward the states that control its coastline, and Ethiopia is not one of them:

• Saudi Arabia launched a multinational maritime alliance in response to the Houthi threat, bringing together Egypt, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen to ensure freedom of navigation through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. 
• Egypt hosted the leaders of Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia, who jointly affirmed that governance of the Red Sea is the responsibility of countries bordering it. 

With these arrangements excluding Ethiopia, Eritrea’s port of Assab has become the most obvious alternative to Djibouti. We assess this raises the risk that Ethiopia will seek Red Sea access through Eritrea by force.

OUTLOOK 

We assess the Ethiopia-Eritrea confrontation will likely persist into 2027, with its trajectory closely tied to the Red Sea’s strategic value. Further cross-border clashes in Tigray are likely over the next three months, while a full-scale offensive toward Assab remains unlikely. A sustained reopening of Hormuz, reducing the Red Sea’s strategic premium, would be an indicator of de-escalation.

Travelers face the most immediate risk from sudden escalation in northern Ethiopia and from potential long-range strikes. The U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa warned of possible long-range attacks on military installations in the capital. We recommend organizations conduct specific risk assessments, defer non-essential travel to Tigray and border areas, avoid accommodation near military installations, and confirm evacuation coverage.

Long-term operations face sustained exposure to trade disruption, given Ethiopia’s reliance on conflict-adjacent Djibouti for maritime trade. Organizations should maintain stocks of critical supplies, identify alternative logistics routes, and review evacuation plans.

HOW CONCENTRIC CAN HELP

Concentric offers a suite of services designed to mitigate risks and enable secure business operations in unpredictable environments:

• Travel Risk Assessments and Alerting: Concentric provides tailored intelligence and customized reports offering real-time, itinerary-focused evaluations of changing geopolitical, security, and environmental conditions. 
• Security Operations: Concentric offers on-the-ground advisory support, executive protection, and operational security planning worldwide.
• Evacuation and Crisis Management Planning: Concentric’s intelligence and security teams deliver crisis-management support, including evacuation route planning, maritime risk assessments, safe-haven identification, and localized emergency response.

Through Concentric’s advanced geopolitical intelligence strategies, businesses can effectively navigate travel risks, safeguard their personnel, and ensure operational continuity across global environments. For more information or to arrange a consultation to enhance your organization’s travel security capabilities, please contact our Global Intelligence team today.