Concentric assesses the U.S. designation of Brazil’s two largest criminal organizations, the Primeiro Comando da capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV), as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) will likely increase pressure on Brazilian authorities to intensify enforcement operations while creating potential compliance challenges for business operating in Brazil. While the designation is unlikely to produce immediate nationwide instability, it may disrupt criminal revenue streams, encourage criminal adaptation, and increase the risk of extortion, kidnapping, and localized violence in urban centers.
OVERVIEW
The U.S. designation of the PCC and CV as FTOs follows similar designations targeting major criminal groups across the region and reflects growing U.S. concerns regarding narcotics trafficking, money laundering, arms smuggling, and the expanding international reach of Latin American criminal organizations. The designation does not directly alter Brazilian law, it increases political pressure on Brasília to demonstrate stronger action against organized crime while creating new legal, financial, and operational risks for companies operating in sectors vulnerable to criminal infiltration.
ANALYSIS
Since the beginning of President Trump’s second term, Washington has designated multiple criminal organizations in Mexico, Venezuela, Central America, and South America, often linking the designations to concerns regarding narcotics trafficking, migration networks, and regional instability. The PCC and CV are widely regarded as Brazil’s most powerful criminal organizations. Originating in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, both groups have evolved from prison-based gangs into transnational criminal enterprises involved in drug trafficking, extortion, money laundering, illegal mining, fuel theft, and logistics operations throughout South America and beyond. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, the PCC in particular has expanded its influence into Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru, and key European drug-trafficking routes.
- The designation introduces additional sanctions and compliance obligations for U.S. entities while increasing international scrutiny of businesses and financial institutions that may have direct or indirect links to PCC or CV-controlled networks.
- Similar designations elsewhere in Latin America have frequently been followed by intensified domestic security operations, heightened cooperation between local governments and U.S. security agencies, along with political pressure.
- Previous Brazilian law enforcement campaigns against organized crime have triggered retaliatory violence, including attacks on police facilities, public transportation, commercial premises, and rival groups.
- Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have experienced periods where security operations led to temporary spikes in shootings, road closures, and disruptions to public services.
The designation carries significant implications for both Brazil’s security environment and businesses operating in the country. One likely consequence of the designation is increased pressure on Brazilian authorities to intensify operations against PCC and CV leadership, financial networks, and prison structures. Previous large-scale security operations have demonstrated such efforts can trigger retaliatory violence. In 2006, the PCC launched coordinated attacks across São Paulo targeting police stations, public transportation, banks, and other infrastructure after a prison crackdown, resulting in hundreds of deaths. More recently, major anti-gang operations in Brazil have caused significant security disruptions and spikes in violence. For example, Operation Containment, launched against Comando Vermelho in Rio de Janeiro in October 2025, became the deadliest police operation in Brazilian history, leaving 122 people dead and triggering widespread disruption across the city. Following the operation, criminal groups blocked major roads, burned vehicles, and disrupted transportation networks, illustrating how intensified pressure on major criminal organizations can produce broader security and mobility risks.
Rather than collapsing under increased pressure, both organizations are likely to adapt where they have repeatedly demonstrated considerable resilience, expanding into new criminal markets and geographic areas despite arrests and security operations. If financial sanctions and compliance measures begin disrupting their access to legitimate businesses and money-laundering channels, both groups may seek alternative revenue sources. This raises concerns regarding increased extortion, cargo theft, fuel theft, and kidnap-for-ransom activity, particularly in major urban centers where criminal groups maintain established networks and territorial influence.
For foreign businesses, the designation also creates substantial compliance and financial risks as under the U.S. FTO legislation, providing material support to designated entities can result in criminal liability, while financial institutions are required to identify and report transactions linked to sanctioned organizations. Given repeated Brazilian Federal Police investigations into criminal infiltration of logistics, transportation, fuel distribution, construction, and real-estate sectors, multinational companies may face heightened due diligence requirements and increased scrutiny of suppliers, contractors, and local partners. Organizations which fail to identify indirect exposure to PCC or CV-linked entities could face legal, regulatory, and reputational consequences.
Lastly, there is the possibility that sustained pressure on PCC and CV could alter the balance of power within Brazil’s criminal ecosystem as, for decades, both organizations have occupied dominant positions within the country’s organized crime landscape. Should their influence be significantly weakened, smaller gangs, regional criminal groups, and militia organizations may seek to expand their presence. While weakening the PCC and the CV would be a strategic objective for the authorities, the resulting competition could generate new sources of instability. Similar fragmentation dynamics have been observed in Mexico and Colombia, where pressure on dominant criminal groups contributed to the emergence of smaller, more unpredictable actors. In Brazil, such competition could increase localized violence, particularly in urban peripheries and border regions where criminal governance structures are already contested.
OUTLOOK
Concentric assesses the designation of PCC and CV as Foreign Terrorist Organizations is unlikely to fundamentally alter Brazil’s criminal landscape in the near term. Both groups have demonstrated significant resilience and adaptability over decades of law enforcement pressure, suggesting they will seek to restructure operations and diversify revenue streams rather than cease activities altogether. However, the designation is likely to increase pressure on Brazilian authorities to intensify enforcement operations and strengthen cooperation with international partners, potentially generating localized security disruptions and retaliatory violence in areas where the groups maintain strong territorial influence.
Over the short to medium term, the most significant risks are likely to stem from how they adapt and increased compliance scrutiny rather than a direct escalation in violence. If sanctions and enhanced due diligence measures begin disrupting legitimate business connections and money-laundering networks linked to PCC and CV, both organizations may place greater emphasis on alternative revenue sources, such as extortion, cargo theft, financial fraud, and kidnap-for-ransom activity.
HOW CONCENTRIC CAN HELP
Concentric offers a suite of services designed to mitigate risks and enable secure business operations in unpredictable environments:
- Travel Risk Assessments and Alerting: Concentric offers customized reports offering real-time, itinerary-focused evaluations of changing geopolitical, security, and environmental conditions. We also offer tailored, real-time intelligence based on travelers’ live locations and planned movements.
- Security Operations: Concentric provides on-the-ground advisory support, executive protection, and operational security planning across Brazil and Latin America.
- Evacuation and Crisis Management Planning: Concentric’s intelligence and security teams deliver crisis-management support, including evacuation route planning, safe-haven identification, and localized emergency response.
Through Concentric’s advanced geopolitical intelligence strategies, businesses can effectively navigate travel risks, safeguard their personnel, and ensure operational continuity across global environments. For more information or to arrange a consultation to enhance your organization’s travel security capabilities, please contact our Global Intelligence team today.
