The 2026 to 2027 El Niño is converting a climate event into a likely physical security risk environment across Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Greater Horn of Africa. Converging with conflict-driven food and fertilizer shocks, the event almost certainly will increase infrastructure risks, civil unrest concerns, and humanitarian exposure for organizations operating in these regions and their supply chains.
Overview
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern, typically every two to seven years, in which sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise above average. The warming weakens the Pacific trade winds and shifts global rainfall patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall and flooding to others.
On September 16, the weekly Niño 3.4 index reached +3.0°C (+5.4°F), confirming the 2026 to 2027 El Niño as a very strong event months ahead of its expected December peak. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center assessed a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event through the Northern Hemisphere in the fall and winter of 2026 and 2027.
The event is also converging with existing geopolitical shocks: fertilizer disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption and grain-price pressure from Russia’s war in Ukraine. This convergence is the primary accelerant of El Niño-linked security risk, shifting the event from an environmental concern to a driver of civil unrest, infrastructure failure, and operational disruption for private sector organizations.
ANALYSIS
The primary driver of physical security risk resulting from El Niño are second-order effects on power, water, food, and public health. This section assesses five risk categories: extreme weather, which poses direct hazards to personnel and assets across three theaters; critical infrastructure and power, focused on hydropower shortfalls in Colombia and Ecuador; supply chain, focused on the Panama Canal; food insecurity and civil unrest, focused on the transmission of rice shortages into protest activity in Southeast Asia; and disease and humanitarian risk, focused on flood-driven outbreaks and displacement in the Greater Horn of Africa.
- Extreme weather risk: Direct hazards to personnel and assets are already active in multiple distinguished theaters: the Pacific coast of South America, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Greater Horn of Africa.
- Peru has operated under rolling states of emergency for most of 2026. A coastal El Niño event earlier in the year caused at least 68 deaths and damaged approximately 580 miles of roads. On July 2, the government placed 796 districts across 22 departments and Callao under a 60-day emergency ahead of anticipated rainfall in 2026 and 2027.
- Panama declared a national drought emergency on August 25, and Colombia’s reservoirs are falling as El Niño suppresses the September to November rains.
- Indonesia is experiencing a severe fire season amid drought conditions comparable to 2015, though cumulative emissions remain well below that year’s levels. More than 12.5 million people across seven provinces have been exposed to haze. Kuching, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore have frequently ranked among the world’s most polluted cities over the past month.
- IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre forecast a 90 percent chance of enhanced October to December rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya, identifying 1997 and 2023 as analog years, both of which saw widespread severe flooding.
- Critical infrastructure and power risk: Colombia and Ecuador are the highest-risk countries for El Niño-driven power shortfalls, as hydropower-dependent grids face drought.
- In Colombia, hydropower’s share of electric generation had fallen to 59 percent by September, with thermal generation rising to 31.6 percent, and Corficolombiana estimated each hour of rationing would cost approximately $1.75 million in lost output. Grid operator XM warned of rationing risk in the eastern region, including Bogotá, from December 2026 to April 2027, prompting the government to secure a deal delaying overlapping maintenance at two major hydroelectric plants.
- On September 7, Colombia tightened conditions on electricity exports to Ecuador. Ecuador relies on Colombian imports during its dry season, which is forecast to run from September 2026 to March 2027.
- Ecuador faces a high likelihood of rolling blackouts. In 2024, drought forced rolling blackouts of up to 14 hours per day, and Colombian power is now constrained. Extended outages degrade key communications systems and have historically coincided with increased opportunistic crime and protest activity, a significant concern given Ecuador’s existing organized crime environment.
- Supply chain risk: The Panama Canal is the chokepoint most exposed to El Niño disruption. The Panama Canal Authority began reducing daily transits in early September, with a planned reduction from 36 to 32 vessels per day by mid-September, citing low water levels in the Gatún and Alhajuela reservoirs.
- Panama’s meteorological institute forecasted a rainfall deficit through December, possibly continuing into March 2027.
- Daily transits fell from 36 to 18 between July 2023 and February 2024, and full capacity did not return until August 2024. We assess further transit reductions are likely in the first quarter of 2027. Congestion increases dwell times at anchorage, elevating cargo theft and tampering risk, while rerouting places pressure on alternative corridors already disrupted by the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz conflicts.
- Food insecurity and civil unrest: We assess the risk of cost-of-living protests will likely increase across import-dependent Southeast Asian states, particularly the Philippines as production coincides with reliance on imported food groups. Key indicators include new export restrictions by the three major rice exporters; India, Vietnam, or Thailand.
- The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index rose 1.9 percent in August to its highest level since late 2022.
- Rice is the most likely transmission vector for unrest in Asia. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects a below-average South Asian monsoon, and past shortages have prompted India, Vietnam, and Thailand to restrict exports. India’s July 2023 ban on non-basmati white rice exports, partly driven by El Niño concerns, pushed global rice prices up approximately 15 percent.
- El Niño is straining rice production across all three major exporters, with India’s monsoon starting 32 percent below normal, Thailand’s output forecast to fall as reservoirs drop below critical levels, and Vietnam warning that drought and saltwater intrusion could affect 350,000 hectares of Mekong Delta rice through early 2027.
- In the Philippines, officials ruled out an import ban and are building buffer stocks for December 2026 to April 2027, projecting El Niño will cut unhusked rice output by 750,000 metric tons.
- The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index rose 1.9 percent in August to its highest level since late 2022.
- Disease and humanitarian risk: We assess flood-driven disease and displacement present the most significant duty-of-care risk for organizations with personnel in Kenya, Somalia, and southern Ethiopia through December 2026. Regional East African health advisories warned of increased malaria, Rift Valley fever, and cholera as floodwaters contaminate water sources.
- On September 14, Kenya’s Ministry of Health identified 21 counties at heightened risk of disease outbreaks, citing a 99 percent probability of above-normal October to December rainfall extending into February 2027. The advisory warned of increased cholera, typhoid, and other diarrheal diseases, alongside malaria, dengue fever, and Rift Valley fever.
- Humanitarian response capacity is likely to be stretched by concurrent crises, including the Ebola outbreak in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.
- Displacement is likely to increase pressure on urban areas and intensify competition for scarce resources, while flood damage to roads is likely to complicate medical evacuation and supply movements.
OUTLOOK
We assess El Niño’s physical security impact will continue through the extreme weather peak and remain elevated through at least mid-2027. Weather-driven hazards such as floods, fires, and haze are likely to peak first, while unrest risks driven by food-prices are likely to lag by several months.
Travelers face the most immediate risk from sudden-onset disruption, including flood-related road closures in Peru and the Greater Horn of Africa, haze-related flight disruption across Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, and protest activity in Southeast Asian capitals. Organizations should conduct itinerary-specific risk assessments before travel, build flexibility into schedules during the October to April period, and monitor local emergency declarations and air quality alerts. Travelers to the Greater Horn of Africa should be briefed on malaria and cholera prevention, and medical evacuation coverage should be confirmed before deployment.
Long-term operations face sustained exposure to power and water shortages in Colombia and Ecuador, prolonged haze in Southeast Asia, and flood-driven disease outbreaks in Kenya, Somalia, and southern Ethiopia. Rolling blackouts are likely to coincide with increased opportunistic crime. Organizations should verify staff residences have backup power and water storage, review shelter-in-place and evacuation plans, and establish communication protocols for outages. Personnel in haze-affected areas should be provided with respiratory protection, and those in East Africa should have access to vetted medical providers and pre-identified evacuation routes.
HOW CONCENTRIC CAN HELP
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