OVERVIEW
Concentric assesses Ethiopia is facing an elevated prospect of confrontation with Eritrea driven by an escalating risk environment shaped by rhetoric over Red Sea access, renewed clashes in Tigray, and mutual accusations of destabilization. The most likely trajectory is a prolonged standoff marked by episodic violence and coercive signaling. The highest-impact scenario remains miscalculation stemming from a disputed-territory clash, proxy escalation, or sovereignty-linked maritime dispute which becomes politically difficult to reverse once initiated.
