Houthi Forces Seize Perim Island, Completing Takeover of Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Perim island, also known as Mayyun, was seized by Houthi fighters on September 11 following the withdrawal of Yemeni Government forces. The Iran-backed group also assumed control of the port city of Mokha a day earlier. The advance concluded an offensive launched on September 3 against Saudi-backed forces along Yemen’s western coast. Houthi forces now hold the center of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Yemeni side of the 28-kilometer channel, and sit approximately 20 kilometers from the African coast. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree stated on September 11 navigation remains safe for all operators except Saudi vessels, which the group has banned under a declared blockade. Saudi Arabia rerouted much of its crude through Red Sea ports after the U.S.-Iran war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the Kingdom’s principal maritime export routes under Iranian or Iranian-aligned control. Riyadh also shut its East-West pipeline the same day after it was struck by drones from Iraqi territory, leaving its principal overland workaround offline. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz will constrain roughly seven percent of global petroleum supplies and approximately 12 percent of global trade. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked President Trump for direct military assistance on September 10 and was told Washington would not intervene for now, but would share intelligence. Trump confirmed the call on September 12, adding the Houthis separately asked his administration to stay out and were letting most shipping through. We advise organizations with maritime, energy, or Red Sea supply chain exposure to treat the exemption for non-Saudi shipping as contingent on the current standoff rather than on any limit to Houthi capability, as artillery on the shoreline is sufficient to close the channel. Companies holding freight or fuel contracts priced against index movements should review escalation terms, particularly as pricing on both corridors typically moves in anticipation of an incident, not in response to one.
Argentina Widens Falklands Oil Sanctions Amid Deteriorating Relations With Britain
Argentina escalated its campaign against oil and gas activity around the Falkland Islands on September 10, expanding administrative proceedings to about 60 companies and individuals, up from 45 a week earlier. The government also proposed legislation extending potential penalties to shareholders, directors and suppliers. Those targeted have 10 business days to respond before authorities decide whether to dismiss or sanction the cases. Argentina’s relations with the United Kingdom have deteriorated accordingly, as President Javier Milei suspended a planned October visit to London, which included an Oxford lecture and meetings with British business leaders. The move followed his September 3 televised address, in which he announced tougher sanctions, funding for a naval base in Tierra del Fuego and a proposed sovereignty-defense bill, while portraying Britain as a declining power. Milei has contrasted his harder line toward London with praise for Trump. Trump recently suggested Washington could reconsider its longstanding neutrality on the Falklands dispute, amid a deterioration in Anglo-American relations over Britain’s refusal to back military action against Iran. Buenos Aires is attempting to position itself as Washington’s closest ideological ally in South America, while framing the confrontation with London within its broader alignment with the U.S. The immediate target is Sea Lion, an offshore project operated by Israel-listed Navitas Petroleum, which holds a 65 percent stake, with London-listed Rockhopper Exploration holding the remaining 35 percent. Located about 220 kilometers north of the islands, the field is estimated to contain 1.7 billion barrels, with first production targeted for 2028. Argentina also filed criminal complaints against companies linked to the project. Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno indicated Buenos Aires intends to pressure a much wider network of insurers, banks and oilfield-service providers. Three service firms reportedly declined Sea Lion work. Londonhas sought to contain tensions while maintaining its position on sovereignty. We advise organizations with commercial exposure to Argentina or to the Falklands energy sector to treat the sanctions regime as durable rather than contingent on the current political moment, and to reassess whether existing relationships fall within its widening scope. Companies in energy services, insurance, banking and marine logistics should review the recoverability of commitments tied to the region and seek legal advice on the reach of the proposed legislation before it passes.
Twelve States Announce National Bans on Goods From Israeli West Bank Settlements
Twelve states announced national restrictions on trade in goods from Israeli settlements in the West Bank in a joint statement on September 8, citing settlement expansion and settler violence. The United Kingdom, France, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden committed to introduce national measures, support European restrictions, or consider further action. British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced the British ban in the House of Commons, extending it to Jewish neighborhoods of East Jerusalem and pairing it with targeted sanctions and measures against companies. Miliband stated the British government considers settler actions in parts of the West Bank to constitute ethnic cleansing. Goods originating in Israel proper are unaffected. Israel responded by ordering the closure of the British consulate in East Jerusalem, which serves the Palestinian territories, and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said several British nationals would be barred from entry and accused London of interference. U.S. officials condemned the measures. Australia declined to join, with Foreign Minister Penny Wong telling parliament Canberra was not pursuing a blanket import ban at this stage, but would examine targeted measures. The modalities of the bans have not been finalized and no implementation date has been set. Annual trade between the United Kingdom and Israel stood at roughly six billion pounds in the four quarters to the second quarter of 2025, of which 1.2 billion pounds represented British goods imports, though the settlement share is not separately recorded. Settlement exports consist largely of agricultural produce, including dates and avocados. The announcement comes a year after the United Kingdom, France and Canada recognized Palestinian statehood. We advise organizations with commercial ties to Israel to anticipate these measures almost certainly will create divergent requirements across the markets in which they operate, with the practical burden of distinguishing settlement goods falling on importers rather than on suppliers. Companies should seek legal advice on their obligations in each affected jurisdiction, particularly where the bans have yet to be defined in detail. We further advise firms with personnel or interests in Israel and the United Kingdom to account for the deterioration in bilateral relations, given the retaliatory measures already taken.
