KEY INSIGHTS
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is entering a new climatic baseline marked by record heat, prolonged drought, and intensifying extreme weather. In 2024, temperatures rose at twice the global rate, with heat waves exceeding 50°C (122°F) disrupting key industries, stressing power grids, and causing mass casualties during the Hajj pilgrimage. Significant flooding in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and continued drought across the Maghreb exposed structural vulnerabilities in urban and agricultural systems. Looking ahead, extreme heat will remain the dominant threat, with escalating risks from flooding and water scarcity likely to drive higher operational costs, infrastructure strain, and regional instability.
KEY EVENTS
2024 was the hottest year on record for the MENA region, with temperatures rising twice as fast as the global average. The Maghreb region suffered drought conditions for the sixth consecutive year. In October 2024, heavy rains in Saudi Arabia caused severe flooding in Makkah. In May 2024, the MENA region experienced extreme high temperatures—Saudi Arabia reported 1,300 people died during the Hajj pilgrimage. On April 16, 2025, the UAE received the heaviest rainfall in 75 years causing widespread flooding.
ANALYSIS
In 2024 an observable shift in the climate profile of the MENA region occurred. Average warming in the region was double the global average, exacerbating extreme weather events, leading to significant disruptions and operational issues for organizations operating in the region. Heat waves above 50°C created severe health risks for workers and reduced operational hours for construction, oil and gas sectors, port operations, and aviation services. Power grids across Gulf states faced increased pressure due to electricity demand for cooling.
The floods in the UAE highlighted how extreme weather and cities designed for minimal rainfall result in widespread disruptions. Dubai International Airport temporarily closed due to flooding, causing 549 delays and 31 flight cancellations. The multi-year drought in the Maghreb region created direct consequences for agriculture, water-intensive industry, and energy production. Low reservoir levels in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia increased dependence on desalinated water, raising operational costs for public services and private-sector operations.
OUTLOOK
We assess the 2024 occurrences of extreme weather events signaled a new baseline for the region. Extreme heat will remain the primary climate threat for MENA in the short to medium term. Heat waves above 50°C will become more frequent and prolonged. Flooding risk will likely remain elevated in urbanized areas, especially where rainfall intensity increases and drainage infrastructure remains inadequate. Drought will continue to exacerbate water insecurity across the Maghreb region.
We encourage organizations and individuals operating and traveling to the MENA region to be mindful of the following considerations:
- Planning: Scenario-based business continuity planning for extreme heat, flooding, and drought.
- Supply chain: Diversified supply-chains and logistical planning to avoid climate-affected chokepoints or infrastructure risk zones.
- Plan secure travel and logistics: Use vetted transport providers and avoid predictable routes.
- Maintain contingency and evacuation plans: Ensure rapid relocation options for staff and volunteers.
- Limit exposure to civilian unrest: Extreme weather events can trigger unrest, looting, and post-event protests.
- Coordinate with local partners: NGOs and business operations should rely on trusted local contacts and security personnel for situational guidance during natural disasters.
Authored by: Alexander Edwards
