KEY INSIGHTS
The Black Sea remains a high-risk environment for commercial shipping as naval mines, collateral damage, drifting ordnance, and targeted Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian “shadow fleet” tankers increase hazards. Recent strikes on tankers such as KAIROS, VIRAT, and MIDVOLGA-2 mark Ukraine’s first unmanned surface vessels (USV) campaign against Russian-aligned commercial vessels. While non-Russian shipping faces lower direct risk, widespread mine contamination and the potential for mistargeting sustain persistent threats to merchant traffic. The maritime security environment is expected to remain volatile beyond any eventual ceasefire.
KEY EVENTS
December 2, 2025: A Russia-flagged tanker, MIDVOLGA-2, was attacked by a drone approximately 70nm off the coast of Turkiye, in the Black Sea. Russian officials claimed the tanker was transporting sunflower oil to Georgia, and was part of Russia’s “Shadow fleet.”
November 28, 2025: Two Gambia-flagged tankers, KAIROS, and VIRAT, were struck by Ukrainian SBU explosive-laden-USVs known as “Sea baby,” while transiting southbound towards the Bosphorus.
December 27, 2023: A Panama-flagged cargo vessel, VYSSOS, hit a sea mine as it sailed towards the Danube river, injuring two crew members.
ANALYSIS
Since the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the Black Sea has become a complex operating environment for merchant vessels. Beginning with artillery and missile strikes near Ukrainian ports, then expanding to detached drifting sea mines, and as of November 2025 long-range Ukrainian naval drones have targeted Russian “shadow fleet” vessels in the Black Sea.
Russia and Ukraine have laid minefields off the Ukrainian coast and near occupied Crimea. The size of the minefields combined with storms and material corrosion caused a large number of moored mines to detach from their anchors, allowing the ordnance to drift throughout the Black Sea. Sea mines have since drifted into Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish waters. NATO Shipping Center and coastal navies have documented repeated discoveries of drifting mines, with at least 94 mines removed in the region by early 2024 and more than one hundred drifting mines destroyed by Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey by 2025. It is estimated it will require five years to completely demine the Black Sea.
In November 2025, Ukraine launched USVs against Russian-associated commercial vessels for the first time. Ukrainian officials targeted three vessels associated with the Russian “shadow fleet,” consisting of older, uninsured vessels with opaque ownership structures in attempts to avoid sanctions.
OUTLOOK
We assess the risk of physical damage to merchant vessels in the Black Sea will remain high. The threat is driven by deliberate targeted strikes on Russian-aligned shipping, widespread naval mine contamination, and expanding unmanned surface vessel campaigns resulting in increased floating ordnance. The mine risk will almost certainly persist beyond any ceasefire or political settlement.
We recommend businesses and individuals with interests or operations in the Black Sea consider the following threat mitigation practices:
- Insurance: Ensure operations and assets have the correct insurance coverage prior to entering the Black Sea.
- Engage: Prior to any voyages owners and operators should consult with trusted security partners and conduct full transit risk assessments.
- Daylight operations: Sailing during daylight hours with additional lookouts posted reduces the potential for unintentional sea mine strikes.
- Recognized corridors: Transiting along recognized corridors further reduces the risk due to increased traffic and likelihood of sea mines being identified and neutralized.
- Crisis response: Crews and shoreside staff should conduct crisis response drills prior to transiting through the Black Sea. Crews should ensure the muster point is located above the waterline due to the threat of mine strikes.
Authored by: Alexander Edwards
