KEY INSIGHTS
Iraq is rebalancing its energy sector by securing over $50 billion in agreements with Western oil majors, marking a shift from recent Chinese dominance. The agreements expand oil and gas infrastructure, diversify partnerships, and signal increased U.S. and Western involvement following the Iraq Investment Forum. While this diversification strengthens Iraq’s production capacity, it heightens risks of militia sabotage and drone attacks targeting Western facilities, as Iranian-aligned groups may seek to disrupt U.S. presence in the region.
KEY EVENTS
October: BP activated a deal to develop four oil fields in Kirkuk, including Avana, Bay Hasan, Jambour, and Khabbaz fields.
September: TotalEnergies announced the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) in Basra, involving three energy sub-projects including upgrading the Ratawi field and a proposed 1-gigawatt solar power plant.
August: Chevron entered a joint agreement with the Iraqi government for exploration blocks and producing fields in the Nassiriya project, Dhi Qar Province.
ANALYSIS
Over the past 2 years, the Iraqi government signed investment and development agreements with multiple Western oil majors, totaling over $50 billion. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani led Iraq’s efforts to attract international investment, diversify its energy sector, and expand oil production. Prior to the influx of U.S. and Western investment in 2025, the industry was dominated by Chinese companies. In May 2024, Chinese companies secured 10 out of 13 oil and gas block licenses. In 2023, over half of Iraq’s oil production came from fields where CNPC or other Chinese companies were operators or partners.
Security concerns around oil and gas infrastructure in Iraq remain significant. In July, three consecutive days of drone strikes targeted facilities in the Kurdistan region, forcing multiple shutdowns. The attacks were likely carried out by Iranian-aligned militias seeking to disrupt U.S. companies and deny the Kurdistan Regional Government oil revenue. Prior to the strikes, production in the region stood at about 285,000 barrels per day, which fell to 150,000 barrels per day after the attacks.
OUTLOOK
We assess if Iraq continues to attract Western energy investment, the country will strengthen its oil and gas infrastructure, diversify its partnerships beyond China, and expand production capacity. There is an underlying risk of sabotage and drone attacks on U.S. interests and companies, as Iranian-aligned militias have previously targeted facilities and U.S. forces throughout 2025. An expanded U.S. footprint in the Iraqi energy sector may provide additional targets for insurgent groups.
We encourage organizations and individuals operating and traveling to Iraq to be mindful of the following considerations:
- Security and Continuity: Insurgent and militia groups can disrupt key transport corridors, logistics, and site security. Armed security must be adequately equipped to mitigate risks.
- Monitor local security updates: Stay informed via trusted intelligence providers, embassies, U.N. agencies, NGOs, and official government advisories.
- Plan secure travel and logistics: Use vetted transport providers and avoid predictable routes.
- Maintain contingency and evacuation plans: Ensure rapid relocation options for staff and volunteers.
- Limit exposure to civilian unrest: Avoid demonstrations, refugee camps, or large gatherings.
- Coordinate with local partners: NGOs and business operations should rely on trusted local contacts and security personnel for situational guidance.
Authored by: Alexander Edwards
