KEY INSIGHTS
Since early September 2025, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) imposed a coordinated fuel and transport blockade across Mali, disrupting routes to Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire. The campaign marks a severe escalation rather than evolution in JNIM’s strategy to gain leverage over economic corridors, implemented through convoy prohibitions, punitive attacks on hauliers, and coercive taxation. Severe fuel shortages mean hospitals, energy systems, and food supply chains are nearing collapse. The crisis demonstrates JNIM’s financing model and exposes the Malian state’s deepening inability to secure critical economic lifelines.
ANALYSIS
On September 14, JNIM militants ambushed a 100-vehicle convoy, destroying more than 40 tankers, demonstrating tactical reach and intent to deter future operations. By targeting fuel, a military and civilian necessity, the group constrains state mobility, inflates prices, and positions itself as a de facto regulator of trade. This hybrid insurgent-criminal network now dominates Mali’s commercial arteries, embedding “armed taxation” as a routine condition of movement.
Operationally, the blockade severed key economic corridors linking Bamako with Dakar, Nouakchott, and Abidjan. Fuel inflation has reached 500 percent, with long queues forming at petrol stations in Bamako. The National Office of Petroleum Products (ONAP) exhausted its strategic reserves, which covered only three days of national consumption. Oil companies, including Shell and Star, scaled back operations amid insecurity. The campaign exploits Mali’s political fragility since the 2021 coup.
OUTLOOK
We assess JNIM’s blockade will likely persist through early 2026. Its self-financing structure, built on convoy theft, checkpoint taxation, and selective truces, enables indefinite continuation. Inflationary pressure and fuel scarcity will intensify public frustration with the junta, raising the potential for political violence, heightened criminality, and civil unrest.
KEY RISK EXPOSURE
- Operational Security (Critical): Weekly convoy ambushes amid limited state escort capacity
- Fuel Supply Stability (Critical): Fuel prices have increased approximately 500 percent
- Industrial Asset Threat (High): At least six foreign commercial sites attacked or extorted since June 2025
- Kidnapping Risk (Critical): Kidnappings of Emirati, Indian, and Chinese nationals underscore persistent risk
RECOMMENDATIONS
- Flexible Logistics: Maintain multiple routing options; avoid fixed convoy schedules that create predictability.
- Harden perimeter security: Ensure work and residential settings provide operational resilience.
- Insurance Coverage: Ensure policy coverage includes war-risk, terrorism, and blockade coverage.
- Financial Resilience: Preserve liquidity buffers to absorb premium spikes, security surcharges, and prolonged supply-chain disruptions.
- Evacuation Protocols: Establish tiered evacuation procedures for staff and dependents, covering immediate and phased withdrawal scenarios.
- Kidnapping / Incident Response Protocols: Develop prevention, reporting, and response frameworks aligned with international best practice.
Authored by: Oliver Maund
