KEY INSIGHTS
The Mapuche conflict in Chile and Argentina continues to escalate amid diverging government approaches. Argentina’s repeal of Indigenous land protections and designation of the Resistencia Ancestral Mapuche (RAM) as a terrorist group have worsened tensions, while Chile has coupled intensified violence with a new reconciliation roadmap under President Boric. The struggle for Mapuche autonomy is likely to remain a source of instability across both Argentina and Chile, threatening extractive industries and prompting recurring clashes with state forces.
SITUATIONAL OVERVIEW: 2021 – 2025
October 2021: The Chilean government places Biobío and La Araucanía provinces under states of emergency after clashes between Mapuche groups and state security forces.
May 2022: The Chilean government designates Coordinadora Arauco-Malleco (CAM) as a terror group.
December 2024: The Argentine government repeals a decree protecting Mapuche communities from land seizures.
February 2025: The Argentine government designates Resistencia Ancestral Mapuche (RAM) as a terror group.
April 2025: Mapuche group attacks a China-run hydroelectric dam in Biobío.
May 2025: Chile’s President Boric announces a new roadmap for resolving the Mapuche conflict.
ANALYSIS
The Mapuche are an Indigenous group with historical ties to land across modern-day Chile and Argentina. Approximately 1.8 million people identify as Mapuche. The majority (1.3 million) live in Chile, making up almost 13 percent of the total population. Since 1997, groups advocating for Mapuche autonomy in both Chile and Argentina have conducted peaceful activism as well as violent resistance operations involving targeted attacks against extractivist infrastructure.
Attitudes towards Mapuche rights groups have followed inverse trajectories in Argentina and Chile. Following Javier Milei’s entrance into office in 2024, protective Mapuche laws were dismantled nationally, including repealing the 2006 decree preventing new land seizures. This sparked a series of arson attacks at the beginning of 2025. In February, the Argentine government declared RAM a terrorist organization. Chile faced the brunt of Mapuche violence beginning in the late nineties and peaking after 2021. In April 2025, Mapuche activists attacked the construction site for a Chinese-owned hydroelectric plant in Biobio, burning down 48 trucks and three pieces of technical equipment.
OUTLOOK
We assess the Mapuche’s struggle for political autonomy and access to ancestral land is likely to continue to spark violence in both Argentina and Chile. Relations between the state and Indigenous groups are worsening in Argentina. Meanwhile, the relationship with Indigenous groups is improving in Chile, where a new roadmap for cooperative reconciliation and recognition of Mapuche rights is being implemented. Overall, Mapuche rights are likely to remain a contested subject for the foreseeable future in both countries.
SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS
- Strengthen Physical Security: Enhance security protocols, particularly in Chile’s Biobío and La Araucanía provinces and Argentina’s Río Negro and Mendoza provinces.
- Implement Stakeholder Engagement Strategies: Maintain transparent communication and, where possible, partnerships with local Indigenous communities.
- Monitor Political and Legal Developments: Stay informed on Argentina’s Indigenous protection laws and Chile’s implementation of its reconciliation roadmap.
- Establish Crisis Response: Provide evacuation protocols for personnel and coordinate with local authorities and security consultants.
Authored by: Robert Hodgkison
