KEY INSIGHTS
Undersea cables carry the vast majority of global internet, financial, and communications traffic, making them among the world’s most critical yet vulnerable pieces of infrastructure. Recent incidents involving suspected sabotage, geopolitical competition, and maritime disruptions have demonstrated how damage to these networks can generate significant economic, security, and operational consequences. As competition between major powers intensifies, undersea cables are increasingly emerging as strategic assets and potential targets within the broader contest for technological and geopolitical influence.
KEY FACTS
More than 95 percent of international internet traffic is transmitted through undersea fibre-optic cables, making them essential to global communications, financial transactions, and digital commerce.
Recent cable disruptions in regions including the Baltic Sea, Red Sea, and around Taiwan have heightened concerns over sabotage and hybrid warfare targeting critical infrastructure. Governments increasingly view subsea cables as national-security assets rather than purely commercial infrastructure.
Strategic maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, South China Sea, and Red Sea host critical cable routes, meaning regional instability can have global consequences for internet connectivity and financial services.
Western governments and defense planners are investing heavily in undersea surveillance and protection capabilities amid concerns over Russian and Chinese activities near subsea infrastructure.
ANALYSIS
The modern global economy depends upon a vast network of undersea fibre-optic cables, connecting continents and facilitating communications, financial transactions, cloud computing, military communications, and international trade. While often overlooked by the public, these cables form the backbone of the digital world. Their importance means that any disruption, whether accidental or deliberate, can have consequences extending far beyond the maritime environment in which they are located.
Historically, undersea cable disruptions were primarily associated with natural hazards, including earthquakes, seabed movement, fishing activity, and ship anchors. However, recent years have witnessed growing concern that cables are increasingly becoming part of geopolitical competition.
A series of incidents in the Baltic Sea, around Taiwan, and in the Red Sea have prompted investigations into potential sabotage and highlighted the strategic vulnerability of global communications infrastructure. Although proving intent remains difficult, security agencies increasingly view cable protection as a national security issue rather than solely a commercial concern.
The Asia-Pacific region presents a particularly significant area of concern. Many of the world’s most important cable routes pass through contested maritime areas, including the South China Sea and waters surrounding Taiwan. Any conflict or military crisis in these regions could have severe consequences for global communications and trade. The concentration of cables through strategic chokepoints means that even limited disruptions could affect multiple countries simultaneously, increasing the potential economic impact.
Beyond geopolitics, the growing dependence on cloud computing, artificial intelligence, digital finance, and remote operations has increased the importance of cable resilience. Financial markets, multinational corporations, healthcare providers, logistics networks, and government agencies rely on uninterrupted connectivity to conduct daily operations. Even temporary outages can result in significant financial losses, operational disruption, and reputational damage. As businesses continue their digital transformation efforts, dependence on undersea infrastructure is likely to increase rather than diminish.
The threat environment is further complicated by the difficulty of monitoring and protecting infrastructure located thousands of meters beneath the ocean surface. Unlike terrestrial infrastructure, subsea cables traverse vast international waters where jurisdictional responsibilities are often unclear. Repair operations can take days or weeks depending on location, weather conditions, and the availability of specialist vessels. During periods of geopolitical tension, these delays could significantly amplify economic disruption and complicate crisis response efforts.
Consequently, undersea cables have emerged as a critical component of national resilience and economic security. Governments are increasingly investing in cable redundancy, infrastructure monitoring, maritime domain awareness, and closer cooperation with private-sector operators. The challenge for policymakers is no longer simply maintaining connectivity, but ensuring that critical communications infrastructure can withstand both accidental disruption and deliberate interference.
OUTLOOK AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Concentric assesses the threat environment surrounding global undersea cable infrastructure to be increasing. Although the majority of cable disruptions continue to result from accidental causes such as fishing activity, anchoring incidents, and natural hazards, geopolitical tensions have elevated concerns regarding deliberate interference. As strategic competition intensifies between major powers, undersea communications infrastructure is likely to remain a focus of security planning and intelligence activity.
Particular concern surrounds cable routes located near geopolitical flashpoints and maritime chokepoints, including the Baltic Sea, Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, South China Sea, and waters surrounding Taiwan. Any future military crisis in these regions could generate significant disruption to global communications, financial services, logistics networks, and cloud-based operations. The growing digitization of economies means even localized cable damage may have cascading international consequences.
For businesses, the risk extends beyond internet connectivity alone. Financial transactions, supply-chain visibility systems, cloud computing services, remote work platforms, and data storage operations all depend upon resilient international communications networks. Organizations with global operations should therefore view undersea cable disruption as a business continuity issue rather than solely a telecommunications concern.
We advise businesses, insurers, and organizations with global operations to consider the following risk-mitigation measures:
- Assess digital infrastructure dependencies: Identify critical business functions reliant upon international connectivity and cloud-based services.
- Strengthen business continuity planning: Develop contingency procedures for communications outages, data-access disruptions, and degraded network performance.
- Diversify communications pathways: Where possible, maintain redundancy through multiple network providers and geographically diverse infrastructure routes.
- Monitor geopolitical developments: Pay particular attention to security developments in regions containing major cable routes and maritime chokepoints.
- Enhance cyber and operational resilience: Integrate cable-disruption scenarios into broader crisis-management and cyber-security planning.
- Coordinate with telecommunications providers: Understand provider resilience measures, repair capabilities, and incident-response procedures in the event of a major cable disruption.
Authored by: Daniel Ratna
