KEY INSIGHTS
Piracy in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden has resurged since March 2026, driven by Somali pirate action groups (PAG) exploiting reduced international naval presence, security complacency, persistent instability in Somalia, and the diversion of maritime security assets toward the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. At least three commercial vessels were hijacked between March and May 2026, the most sustained piracy activity in the region since the late 2010s. The resurgence signals a deteriorating maritime security environment which will likely increase operational costs, insurance premiums, and voyage risks for commercial shipping transiting the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden.
KEY EVENTS
May 11-12: The Maritime Security Centre Indian Ocean (MSCIO) reported two separate PAGs were preparing to conduct offshore operations. Skiffs were launched from Bosaso, Gulf of Aden, and near Bandarbeyla, Somalia, Indian Ocean.
May 2: A Togo-flagged oil products tanker, M/T Eureka, was hijacked by Somali pirates while at anchorage off Qana Port, Shabwa, Yemen. The PAG reportedly demanded USD$10 million for the release of the vessel.
April 28: A Malta-flagged crude oil tanker M/V Minerva Pisces was approached by a PAG whilst transiting south through the Indian Ocean. Private Armed Security Team (PAST) fired warning shots and the PAG disengaged their approach.
April 26: A St Kitts and Nevis-flagged general cargo ship, M/V Sward, was hijacked 6nm northeast of Garacad, Somalia.
April 21: A Palau-flagged tanker M/T Honour 25, was hijacked 30nm northeast off Puntland, Somalia.
ANALYSIS
Piracy in the western Indian Ocean has fluctuated in line with maritime security enforcement, regional instability, and economic conditions in Somalia. Following peak piracy activity between 2008 and 2012, sustained multinational naval initiatives, widespread use of PAST, and improved vessel hardening measures significantly reduced successful hijackings.
The most likely enabler of the recent piracy resurgence is the shift of naval assets. In 2023 anti-piracy patrols shifted their area of operations from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, due to Houthi attacks, and recent operational attention has shifted assets toward the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman following the escalation of maritime tensions linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
The M/T Eureka hijacking exemplifies the increased operational area of PAGs. The tanker was seized off Yemen and redirected toward the Somali coastline. Despite significant latent periods of time, where Somali PAGs likely engaged in other illicit activities including weapon smuggling, the capability to conduct deep offshore piracy has been retained. Facilitators, financiers, and coastal support structures remained intact in Puntland and central Somalia, allowing groups to rapidly reactivate operations when maritime security pressure declined.
The modus operandi of PAG remains consistent with legacy methods: PAGs operate in groups between 5-12 persons, armed with small arms and light weapon systems. Groups use skiffs to deploy offshore, and often target dhows to use as motherships, increasing operation ranges. The hijackers of the M/T Eureka reportedly demanded a USD 10 million ransom, consistent with some of the highest payments made during the peak of Somali piracy.
OUTLOOK
Concentric assesses piracy activity in the Indian Ocean will likely remain elevated in the short-to-medium term, particularly near the Somali Basin, and Gulf of Aden. Further hijacking attempts are highly likely over the coming months, particularly against commercial vessels transiting at low speeds, with low freeboards and with no PAST.
For organizations operating in or transiting the Indian Ocean region we advise considering:
- Pre-Voyage: Conduct updated transit risk assessments prior to entering the High Risk Area and maintain communication with regional reporting centers.
- Crew Preparedness: Ensure crews receive anti-piracy training and conduct emergency drills covering boarding attempts, citadel procedures, and distress communications.
- Insurance Review: Confirm war risk and kidnap and ransom insurance coverage remains valid for intended operating areas.
- Intelligence Monitoring: Maintain real-time maritime intelligence monitoring due to the rapidly evolving security environment across both the Red Sea and western Indian Ocean.
Authored by: Alex Edwards
