KEY INSIGHTS
Nigeria’s last six months showed a pattern of church-adjacent abductions, road ambushes, and village raids affecting Christian communities as part of the country’s broader security challenge. An open source search over the last six months revealed at least 28 incidents and 40 fatalities in Christian communities. We assess these numbers are likely an underestimation, nonetheless, are a useful indicator of political violence. In this indicative data, Plateau, Kaduna, and Benue formed the core risk belt, while Borno and Adamawa faced secondary jihadist pressure.
KEY EVENTS
November 1, 2025: President Trump threatened potential U.S. military action over alleged killings of Christians.
October 31, 2025: Washington designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” under the International Religious Freedom Act, opening the door to sanctions.
October 14, 2025: Fulani Militants attacked multiple Christian communities in Plateau state, killing thirteen civilians.
September 23, 2025: Suspected Boko Haram fighters raided Wagga Mongono, Adamawa State, killing four and burning a church, homes, and vehicles.
July 11, 2025: A militia assaulted an Evangelical Church of Winning All meeting in Kajuru, Kaduna State, killing five worshippers and injuring three.
July 7, 2025: Gunmen attacked Bege Baptist Church, Katsina State, killing two, including a pastor, and abducting one congregant.
ANALYSIS
Open-source reporting over the last six months indicates violence affecting Christians reflects Nigeria’s broader insecurity, rather than a coordinated nationwide campaign against Christians. Incidents clustered along a middle belt axis, namely Plateau, Kaduna, and Benue, where communal and farmer–herder tensions dominate. By contrast, the Northeast, especially Borno and Adamawa, showed elevated violence tied to jihadist activity. Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and JAS conducted roadside abductions, lethal ambushes, and episodic church burnings during larger raids.
We assess the evidence supports a multi-cause insecurity model. Killings appear predominantly motivated by ethnic or material considerations, not religious differences. Christians were frequently and visibly affected, but incident distribution and perpetrator profiles did not substantiate a systemic, countrywide targeting campaign or claims of “genocide.” Jihadist threats remained significant yet geographically concentrated, and communal and criminal actors accounted for a greater number of incidents during the reviewed period.
OUTLOOK
We assess Nigerian officials will emphasize and praise counterterrorism operations aimed at easing U.S. pressure following statements which forced Nigeria to reject a “Christian genocide” label. Attacks and abductions will likely persist, with seasonal spikes and sustained kidnap-for-ransom incentives. Identity militias will retain capacity for lethal raids in Plateau, Kaduna, and Benue. Jihadist factions will continue road ambushes and targeted clergy kidnappings in the Northeast.
Risk Implications: Maintain heightened security postures, enforce no-single-vehicle policies, and daylight movements. Deepen community liaison with church and traditional leaders for early warning. Tighten vetting of guard forces and drivers.
Authored by: Oliver Maund
