KEY INSIGHTS
Thailand and Cambodia experienced a renewed conflict along their disputed border on 28 May 2025, rooted in historical territorial disputes, nationalist rhetoric, and unresolved claims over sites. Periodic skirmishes, ongoing troop deployments, and heightened military readiness indicate tensions remain unresolved. Without sustained diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures, the region risks recurring engagements, disruptions to travel, humanitarian operations, and cross-border trade.
KEY EVENTS
A skirmish involving Cambodian and Thai forces occurred near the Emerald Triangle on 28 May 2025, resulting in the death of a Cambodian soldier, reigniting long standing border tensions. On 24 July, 2025, the border conflict escalated dramatically into open armed fighting for four days, involving artillery exchanges, airstrikes, and rockets. The violence left up to 40 people dead (mostly civilians), and led to mass evacuations and widespread displacement.
Cambodian officials raised the dispute with the International Court of Justice (ICJ), while China offered to mediate. Malaysian officials successfully brokered a ceasefire on 28 July, but tensions remained high as both sides accused each other of violations. The border crisis also contributed to internal political turmoil in Thailand—Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended on July 1 and eventually removed from office in late August by the Constitutional Court.
ANALYSIS
This latest incident demonstrated how localized disputes can rapidly escalate into open conflict and trigger a sudden unraveling of regional security dynamics. Cambodia’s close relationship with China has become a central factor in the crisis. Bangkok must navigate a more complex position, balancing strong economic and military ties with China against its longstanding security cooperation with the United States. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faced criticism for its muted response to the conflict.
OUTLOOK AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Although active fighting has eased, past periodic skirmishes and the ongoing heightened military presence in disputed areas suggest the Thailand–Cambodia border conflict is likely to persist in the near future. Historical grievances, particularly over the Preah Vihear Temple and other contested border zones, combined with nationalist rhetoric on both sides, are expected to sustain tensions.
We encourage foreign nationals, NGOs, and businesses operating in the region to:
- Avoid high-risk areas: Refrain from traveling to or through disputed border zones, including Sisaket, Surin, Ubon Ratchathani, Preah Vihear, and Banteay Meanchey.
- Monitor local security updates: Stay informed via embassies, U.N. agencies, NGOs, and official government advisories. Conditions may change rapidly.
- Plan secure travel and logistics: Use vetted transport providers and avoid predictable routes, checkpoints, or crossings in contested areas.
- Maintain contingency and evacuation plans: Ensure rapid relocation options for staff and volunteers.
- Coordinate with local partners: NGOs and business operations should rely on trusted local contacts and security personnel for situational guidance.
Authored by: Daniel Ratna
