KEY INSIGHTS
Trinidad and Tobago (TT) is facing its second state of emergency in 2025 due to escalating gang violence, prison corruption, and credible threats against state authority. Decades of inequality, government missteps, ethnic tensions, and the country’s role as a trafficking hub have fueled the growth of powerful criminal networks. Without comprehensive reforms addressing both domestic drivers and regional dynamics, TT risks sliding further towards instability.
KEY EVENTS
July 18, 2025: Lawmakers declared a new state of emergency over a criminal plot to overthrow the government.
December 30, 2024: Lawmakers declared a four-month state of emergency (Jan–Apr 2025) following TT’s most violent year on record.
1990: Jamaat al Muslimeen (JAM) launched a coup attempt, setting a precedent for violent threats to state authority.
CRISIS ROOTS
Despite a high per capita GDP and large national wealth accumulation driven by its fossil fuel industry, TT’s economic advantages have been distributed unequally. The 2019 Gini Index rated TT as the world’s twentieth most unequal society. Ethnic tensions also contributed to the growth of TT’s criminal violence, organized into conflict between two main factions: Rasta City and Muslim City. In the 2000s, government officials awarded state contracts to criminal “community leaders” in an attempt to begin economic development of impoverished gang-controlled areas, but these funds were largely misused.
Trinidad and Tobago’s proximity to South America has made it a key trafficking hub. Amid Venezuela’s 2010s political crisis, international organized criminal groups worked with local gangs to develop the islands as a cocaine trafficking node. Following new U.S. sanctions against Venezuela in 2025 and a concerted anti-migration and anti-trafficking effort in Central America, trafficking routes in the Caribbean became more strategically important for organized crime groups.
OUTLOOK
We assess, beyond the current state of emergency, TT’s future security landscape will likely deteriorate. Domestic issues including unresolved ethnic tensions and socioeconomic inequalities, coupled with the lack of a long-term government plan for countering gang growth, are likely to encourage further organized criminal activity.
We encourage organizations operating in TT and individuals traveling to the region consider the following risk mitigations:
- Avoid high-risk neighborhoods where gang activity is concentrated, and rely on trusted local contacts or security services for area-specific guidance.
- Strengthen access control and vetting measures for staff and contractors, given evidence of corruption and collusion between professionals and criminal networks.
- Limit predictable routines to reduce exposure to kidnapping and targeted violent crime.
- Use secure logistics and travel planning, particularly around ports, marinas, and transit hubs.
- Maintain contingency and evacuation plans in case of unrest or state-of-emergency restrictions.
Authored by: Robert Hodgkison
