KEY INSIGHTS
The Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement, signed on September 17, 2025, institutionalized Riyadh and Islamabad’s long-standing military cooperation, ensures mutual defense against aggression, and signals Riyadh’s intent to diversify away from exclusive reliance on the U.S.’s protection. Driven by Israel’s strike on Doha, Qatar, in early September 2025, the pact underscores regional concerns and the accelerating diversification of security agreements over legacy defense alignments. Ambiguity over a possible de facto nuclear umbrella heightens regional deterrence dynamics against Iran and Israel.
KEY 2025 EVENTS
October 20: Mohammed bin Salman announced a trip to the U.S., reports indicated Saudi Arabia is seeking a Qatar-style defense pact.
October 9: Pakistan’s cabinet ratified the mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
September 29: President Trump signed an executive order with an explicit security guarantee in the event of “external attack” on Qatar.
September 17: Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) in Riyadh, pledging joint response to aggression.
September 9: Israel launched a missile attack targeting residential buildings housing members of Hamas’s political bureau in Doha, Qatar.
ANALYSIS
The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) institutionalizes an enduring but previously informal alliance between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia amid heightened regional tensions. The agreement ensures an act of aggression against either country constitutes an attack against both, encompassing all military means, including potential nuclear cooperation. Pakistan maintains an estimated 170 nuclear warheads. The extension of Pakistani nuclear weapons provides Riyadh with a deterrent against Iran and Israel.
For Saudi Arabia, the agreement reduces sole reliance on the United States, whose inability to prevent the Israeli strike in Qatar eroded confidence in its regional guarantees. The defense agreement with Pakistan is unlikely to unseat the U.S. in terms of its importance in Saudi Arabian defense. Instead, it diversifies the Saudi security landscape and reduces reliance away from a single partner now viewed as unreliable. Pakistan, for its part, will secure sustained financial and strategic dividends.
OUTLOOK
We assess the SMDA will consolidate a new defense equilibrium in the Middle East, where conventional cooperation expands quickly while nuclear ambiguity persists by design. Riyadh’s pursuit of similar agreements with the U.S. and regional partners will almost certainly continue, particularly if Iran’s ballistic and proxy activity intensifies.
We encourage organizations and individuals operating and traveling to Saudi Arabia to be mindful of the following considerations:
- Security and Continuity: Houthi drone and missile launches can disrupt key transport corridors, logistics, and site security.
- Monitor local security updates: Stay informed via trusted intelligence providers, embassies, U.N. agencies, NGOs, and official government advisories.
- Plan secure travel and logistics: Use vetted transport providers and avoid predictable routes.
- Maintain contingency and evacuation plans: Ensure rapid relocation options for staff and volunteers.
Authored by: Alexander Edwards
