KEY INSIGHTS
The ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devastated infrastructure, displaced 13 million people, and left El Fasher at the epicenter of famine, disease, and siege conditions. Continued RSF attacks on civilians and aid workers, over 120 killed since 2023, have limited humanitarian operations. The humanitarian crisis will almost certainly worsen, with persistent insecurity, epidemic spread, and deliberate obstruction of aid.
KEY EVENTS
October 2025: A local epidemiologist reported a hepatitis outbreak in Al Jazirah state.
September 2025: The World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed cholera had spread to all 18 states of Sudan, with 105,000 cases and over 2,600 deaths reported since July 2024.
August 2025: The World Food Programme (WFP) raised concerns over famine in besieged El Fasher.
June 2025: A joint UNICEF and WFP aid convoy was targeted whilst en route to El Fasher, killing five aid workers.
April 2025: The UNHCR stated 13 million people had been displaced due to the internal conflict.
ANALYSIS
The Sudanese civil war began in April 2023, between the government-aligned SAF and the paramilitary RSF. Prior to the conflict Sudan was experiencing a humanitarian crisis, in which approximately 15.8 million people required humanitarian assistance. The internal conflict has since exacerbated the severity of the humanitarian crisis across multiple issues, including famine and food insecurity, water insecurity, aid access, displacement, disease outbreaks, and war crimes.
El Fasher in North Darfur has been the epicenter for the humanitarian crisis. The city has been the focal point of conflict between the SAF and RSF since May 2024. Following 500 days under siege, large numbers of civilians suffered acute malnutrition and cholera spread throughout the city. Aid workers were denied entry. The conflict has also created issues around the safety and security for aid workers—since the beginning of the conflict 120 humanitarian personnel have been killed.
OUTLOOK
We assess Sudan’s humanitarian crisis is expected to deteriorate further. The conflict has destroyed or disrupted infrastructure across Sudan, and over 13 million people have been displaced. The cholera epidemic has spread to all 18 states, infecting more than 105,000 people. Attacks on aid convoys are also likely to continue as the RSF weaponizes humanitarian crises. The humanitarian response will likely remain severely constrained by insecurity, limited funding, and access denials.
We encourage organizations and individuals operating and traveling to Sudan to be mindful of the following considerations:
- Security and Continuity: Insurgent and militia groups can disrupt key transport corridors, logistics, and site security.
- Monitor local security updates: Stay informed via trusted intelligence providers, embassies, U.N. agencies, NGOs, and official government advisories.
- Plan secure travel and logistics: Use vetted transport providers and avoid predictable routes.
- Maintain contingency and evacuation plans: Ensure rapid relocation options for staff and volunteers.
- Limit exposure to civilian unrest: Avoid demonstrations, refugee camps, or large gatherings.
- Coordinate with local partners: NGOs and business operations should rely on trusted local contacts and security personnel for situational guidance.
Authored by: Alexander Edwards
