KEY INSIGHTS
Pakistan is facing an intensifying security crisis as insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa escalate. Violence in 2025 has surged to its highest level in years, driven by renewed activity from Baloch separatist factions and the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In addition, border clashes have erupted between Afghanistan and Pakistan, highlighting regional security concerns. Pakistan risks further destabilization, strained regional relations, and increased risks to foreign personnel, infrastructure, and investment projects.
KEY EVENTS
November 2022: TTP formally ended its ceasefire with Islamabad, announcing the resumption of nationwide attacks.
February 2024: A surge in Baloch separatist attacks targeted Chinese interests and energy infrastructure in Gwadar and Turbat.
March 2025: Militants from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) hijacked the Jaffar Express train, taking over 440 passengers hostage. Pakistani security forces launched Operation Green Bolan to retake control, killing 33 militants and freeing most hostages.
September 2025: Heavy clashes erupted in Bajaur and South Waziristan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. More than 35 militants and 12 soldiers were reported killed.
October 2025: Border clashes erupted between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan acknowledged 23 soldiers were killed.
ANALYSIS
The security landscape in Pakistan is deteriorating at an accelerating pace, particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Overall violence rose by nearly 46 percent in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a steady erosion of the security landscape. In Balochistan, separatist movements have intensified attacks on military assets and economic targets. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, TTP has reasserted its presence across the tribal belt.
The insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is increasingly dominated by TTP, with activity in 2025 already surpassing 2024 levels, with over 600 engagements recorded against state forces. TTP now deploys more strategic violence—bombings, assassinations of tribal leaders or civil servants, and symbolic attacks—designed to undermine state authority. Meanwhile, Balochistan’s insurgency has become more politically charged, with the Baloch Liberation Army, Balochistan Liberation Front, and Balochistan Republican Guard increasing targeting of military and infrastructural assets, including those tied to Chinese investment under CPEC.
Islamabad has increasingly framed its insurgencies through a regional lens, accusing India of sponsoring militant groups operating within its border. Cross-border sanctuaries in Afghanistan are also impacting the situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with tensions between Islamabad and Kabul escalating sharply.
OUTLOOK AND RECOMMENDATIONS
We assess the outlook for Pakistan’s internal security landscape will continue to deteriorate, with the insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa expected to persist through 2026. The U.S. Department of State currently advises travelers to reconsider travel to Pakistan, with a specific warning to avoid Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to ongoing insurgent activity.
- Avoid high-risk areas: Non-essential travel to Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and border zones should be postponed or canceled.
- Use secure logistics providers: Employ trusted, pre-vetted local transport and avoid predictable routes or routines.
- Maintain robust communications: Ensure personnel have access to secure, redundant communications channels.
- Monitor local security updates: Regularly consult advisories from embassies.
- Limit exposure to civilian unrest and checkpoints: Avoid protests, government facilities, and major road crossings in restive regions.
Authored by: Daniel Ratna
