KEY INSIGHTS
Guinea’s September constitutional referendum, a prerequisite for presidential and legislative elections to end the transitional authority after the 2021 coup, passed with 89 percent support. Despite the outcome, prospects for legitimate elections and stability remain uncertain. The reforms may entrench executive dominance by removing barriers to General Mamady Doumbouya’s candidacy and institutionalizing executive power. The process was tightly managed and marked by repression, leaving limited prospects for credible elections.
KEY TENETS OF THE REFERENDUM
- Executive Power: September’s referendum extended presidential term lengths, granted junta amnesty, and created a bicameral legislature dominated by executive appointees.
- State Control: The regime has long dismantled independent bodies, replaced local officials with military appointees, and suppressed protests, parties, and media to cement dominance.
- Institutional Façade: Citizen petitions, commissions, and courts exist on paper but likely lack independence under junta control.
- Legitimacy Deficit: Despite overwhelming support for the referendum, the opposition claimed irregularities with the vote, undermining credibility.
SITUATIONAL OVERVIEW 2021–2025
In September 2021, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya seized power, ousting President Alpha Condé. The junta agreed to a transition plan with ECOWAS but missed milestones. In 2023–2024, repression intensified—independent media outlets were shuttered, licenses revoked, and journalists arrested or disappeared. Local governance was overhauled: 34 prefects were replaced with military officials, and 3,000 junta appointees replaced elected municipal councils. The September 2025 referendum passed with a claimed 89 percent approval on an 86 percent turnout, introducing a seven-year presidential term and amnesty for junta actions.
ANALYSIS
September’s referendum introduced constitutional reforms aimed at ending the transitional military government. However, the reforms’ context undermines their credibility. Executive-aligned personnel control key judicial and electoral processes, ensuring Colonel Mamady Doumbouya’s dominance. Major opposition parties remain suspended, and the new electoral body sits under the Ministry of Territorial Administration, limiting prospects for genuine competition. Despite the referendum, according to Afrobarometer polling, 70 percent of Guineans favour democracy and 89 percent support a two-term presidential limit, demonstrating a divergence between the results and public sentiment. Repression was visible during the referendum, as authorities deployed no fewer than 45,000 members of the defense and security forces.
OUTLOOK
We assess the reforms carry dual effects. The referendum result cements regime control, but public discontent may resurface. Junta reliance on staged elections and limited governance capacity increases the likelihood of unrest, especially during electoral cycles, service delivery failures, or times of renewed repression.
SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS
- Business Continuity: Maintain contingency reserves of fuel, food, and cash to cover multi-day curfews. Expect supply chain strain if curfews exceed 72 hours.
- Insurance: Ensure appropriate corporate travel insurance that covers evacuation in cases of heightened political violence.
- Facilities Security: Strengthen perimeter defenses at offices, depots, and compounds.
- Staff Protection: Rotate staff out of demonstration zones 24 hours before major announcements.
- Election Posture: Restrict non-essential movements in Conakry during polling and result announcements.
- Evacuation Readiness: Maintain extraction options through Conakry International and secondary land routes into Sierra Leone.
Authored by: Oliver Maund
