KEY INSIGHTS
Since the collapse of Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government on September 8 and the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as his successor, large-scale protests have become a persistent feature across France. The September 10 “Bloquons tout” movement drew 197,000 demonstrators, with widespread blockades and sporadic violence in major cities, underscoring the political and social fallout from Bayrou’s unpopular austerity plan. Looking ahead, additional union-led demonstrations on September 18 and farmer protests on September 26 are expected to intensify disruption, signaling sustained instability for Macron’s government.
KEY EVENTS
June 2024: President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election, following poor European Parliament elections, which resulted in a hung parliament.
July 15: Bayrou announced a hugely unpopular budget which called for €43.8 billion of cuts.
September 8: French prime minister, François Bayrou, lost a vote of no confidence, which resulted in his resignation.
September 10: Approximately 197,000 citizens protested across France as part of the “Bloquons tout!” (Block everything!) movement. The Interior Ministry stated 540 arrests were carried out, 221 of which occurred in Paris.
ANALYSIS
France’s government collapsed on September 8, 2025, when Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote in the National Assembly by 364 to 194 following his backing of a €44 billion deficit-reduction plan. He resigned to President Emmanuel Macron, who then appointed Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister on September 9, becoming the fifth Prime Minister in 21 months. Lecornu entered office amid market and political pressure, reinforced by Fitch’s downgrade of France to A+ on September 14.
Protest activity surged in the immediate aftermath. A decentralized “Bloquons tout” protest on September 10 drew hundreds of rallies across the country, widespread blockades, and violence with police. Demonstrations took place in Paris, Nantes, Montpellier, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Marseille, and Lyon. Authorities deployed approximately 80,000 officers nationwide, 6,000 of those in Paris. Trade unions announced nationwide demonstrations on September 18, and French farmers declared protests on September 26.
OUTLOOK
We assess if the French government continues to pursue austerity, there will be a persistent risk of further civil unrest and protest activity across the country, with particular impact in Paris and other large cities. There is also a risk of government collapse should Macron and Lecornu’s policies remain unpopular. Given France’s significant national debt, the incumbent government may be forced to maintain austerity measures to avoid further fiscal downgrades, a move that will likely deepen the financial crisis and trigger additional civil unrest.
We encourage organizations and individuals operating and travelling to France to be mindful of the following considerations:
- Operational Resilience: Persistent protest activity which targets key transport hubs can cause major operational disruptions. Companies should maintain contingency plans, including support for employees who may be directly affected.
- Duty of Care: Organizations operating in France must ensure employees are informed of nearby protest activity and advised to avoid those areas due to the risk of escalation and violence.
- Reputational Risk: Operating during highly visible protests carries reputational challenges. In a polarized environment, neutrality is scrutinized.
Authored by: Alexander Edwards
